Trump may turn to foreign policy
Following the 3 November midterm elections, in which Republicans lost control of Congress, Donald Trump posted an image of a red cap with the word “VETO” on it, signaling potential resistance from the incoming Democratic majority during the remainder of his term. Democrats will gain the ability to block legislation, challenge spending, and reject presidential nominees when the new Congress takes office on 3 January 2027.
Trump’s term is scheduled to continue until January 2029, and he will retain substantial executive authority until then, including the power to veto legislation sent to him. The Democrats’ control of Congress may lead to increased tensions between the legislative and executive branches, with Trump’s ability to veto legislation being a key factor. Trump accepted the election outcome, stating that Democrats “did a good job”, and offered cooperation on immigration while threatening to veto legislation he deems unacceptable.
Domestic Constraints and Global Implications
Trump’s response to the election outcome suggests that he may be open to bargaining with the Democrats, but also prepared for prolonged conflict. He rejected the idea that the election was a personal defeat, instead blaming Republican candidates for the loss. This combination of cooperation and confrontation may lead to a complex and unpredictable political scene. Republican leaders, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have responded to the election outcome with differing views on how to proceed.
Johnson acknowledged the historical trend of a president’s party losing seats in midterm elections, while Thune promised that Republicans would “not stand idly by” as Democrats try to reverse their achievements. The party appears to be divided on how to respond to the election outcome, which may have implications for international partners. According to Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a president facing increased obstacles at home may find foreign policy an area where he can “act with relative freedom”.
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Liis Mure, a senior fellow at Estonia’s International Centre for Defence and Security, warned that domestic constraints could redirect Trump’s energy towards foreign policy, potentially bringing Europe greater instability. This shift could create problems for other governments, as a president facing investigations may seek a diplomatic breakthrough to demonstrate strength. Even without new legislation, a threatened tariff or abrupt negotiating demand can force trading partners to reassess their plans, increasing the risk of volatility.
Legal and Political Limits
For allies, uncertainty extends beyond American actions to the durability of commitments. A position backed by the White House but opposed by Congress may be difficult to sustain, encouraging other governments to delay decisions or seek alternative partnerships. Ryan Hass anticipated continued trade activism, with Trump “testing the outer limits of his authority”. He suggested trade battles could divert attention from investigations into the administration and Trump’s family.
Michael O’Hanlon argued that Congress would have greater influence over defence budgets than over individual decisions to use force. He doubted Democratic control would fundamentally change presidential behaviour on war powers, particularly while Trump retained his veto. The legal constraints on Trump’s authority remain significant, with the War Powers Resolution requiring consultation and reporting to Congress and generally requiring the termination of unauthorised hostilities after 60 days, subject to exceptions. Trump has previously sought alternative routes around congressional resistance, such as declaring a national emergency to obtain border funding in February 2019.
Congressional majorities also have limits. Trump can veto measures aimed at restricting his policies. Overriding him requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber. Democrats could investigate tariff decisions and press for changes, but removing the policies would be harder. This limitation on congressional power may have significant implications for trade policy and the global economy.
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Global Economic Impact and Incentives for Restraint
The World Bank’s October commodity outlook projected a 32% rise in energy prices in 2026, warning that depleted oil inventories have left markets more exposed to disruption. Any renewed escalation would confront an already vulnerable global economy, with the burden falling on countries with little influence over decisions in Washington. Higher energy costs can raise transport, electricity, and production expenses, complicating exporters’ investment decisions.
The IMF’s October outlook identified energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain as facing particularly difficult conditions. For these countries, predictable policy remains valuable even in the absence of new conflicts. There are also incentives for restraint, as Hass anticipated possible troop reductions in Europe and the Middle East, alongside avoidance of direct confrontation with China and Russia. A negotiated agreement or withdrawal could offer Trump a visible achievement, with political weakness potentially encouraging bargaining as well as confrontation.
Institutional Checks and Congressional Influence
William Galston, a Brookings senior fellow, placed greater emphasis on institutional checks, arguing that investigations, resistance to appointments, and challenges to presidential actions could slow or potentially halt the expansion of executive power. Stronger scrutiny could change the administration’s calculations. Mure highlighted the importance of Republicans challenging Trump publicly, as resistance within his own party could carry different political weight.
Foreign governments will need to watch whether Republican criticism develops into votes, funding restrictions, or demands for consultation. Statements of concern alone offer little assurance about how effectively Congress will act. Trump appears ready to fight the Democrats over attempts to limit his power, but whether this will make him more aggressive abroad remains unclear. His response to spending restrictions and his use of emergency powers will show how far Congress can restrain him, with other governments also needing to see whether he follows through on announced agreements.
